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Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-29T04:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28848/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-31T06:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-29T07:53Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1150
Longitude (deg): 056W
Latitude (deg): 00N
Half-angular width (deg): 42

Notes: Modelled inner core of ejecta only, shock is partial halo and probably on Sun-Earth line, so some degree of impact likely. MOSWOC Enlil has an overly fast initialised solar wind, although the effect in this case will probably marginal, and any glance will probably remain within the UTC day of 31 January.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 60.90 hour(s)
Difference: 23.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-01-29T16:24Z

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